Catheys Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS66 KHNX 270501
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1001 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.UPDATE...
Aviation and Air Quality Updated

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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest through this evening,
especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park.

2. Dry lightning is possible today in developed storms due to a
probability less than 30 percent for greater than 0.10" of
rain.

3. Cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy conditions
continue for the remainder of the weekend, with some fire
weather concerns.


4. Minimal change in the overall weather pattern with a slow warming
trend Sunday into next week. A return to triple digits is
possible across the San Joaquin Valley by Tuesday and the Kern
County desert by Monday.


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.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is currently over Northern CA with the
center of the low over the Sierra Nevada near Yosemite. This
feature will continue to move towards the Great Basin over this
weekend. Another round of high temperatures at near to below
average is in store for today while breeziness continues along
the prone areas of near the coastal ranges (50-70 percent
chance of at least 25 mph gusts) and along the Mojave Desert
slope (50-70 percent chance of 40 mph gusts or stronger) into
this evening. The winds continue to produce at least a slight
risk for new fires in these areas. A gradual warming trend
begins Sunday into next week as ridging builds into Central CA.
Highs near 100 degrees become a possibility in the SJ Valley
(15-35 percent) by Tuesday and a greater chance (45-75 percent)
into the Kern County desert by as early as Monday. Otherwise,
expect mainly seasonal temperatures with highs in the upper 90`s
in most valley locations and into the triple digits in the
hottest desert locations. Steady temperatures last well into
next week.

In the meantime, there remains the slight chance for isolated
dry lightning towards Yosemite National Park again today, based
on the Day 1 fire weather outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center. A slight chance for thunderstorms will continue into
Saturday over the Sierra Nevada to as far south as Tulare
County. Similar probabilities as yesterday are shown for today,
or near 30 percent at Yosemite and lower to around 10 percent
into Tulare County. The best time for storm development will be
this afternoon until early this evening. Any thunderstorm is
capable of producing a lightning strike that could start a new
fire.

Beyond late next week, the potential for near average
temperatures will continue, per the Climate Prediction Center,
including in the latest 6-10 day outlook. The latest 8-14 day
outlook does now show a slight tilt in the odds for above
average temperatures while precipitation remains near average
(although normal precipitation is basically zero for most of
our area due to being in the current dry season). For reference,
average high temperatures across the Central Valley are in the
upper 90`s through the first week of August.


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.AVIATION...
6Z Update: VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin
valley for the next 24 hours. A 5 to 15 percent chance of
thunderstorms will exist across the Sierra Nevada Crest from
Yosemite to Tulare County 18Z Sunday through 03Z Monday

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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$$

public...BSO
aviation....JPK

weather.gov/hanford